Friday, 6 May 2011

Taking A Beating

It was almost inevitable that the Libdems would take a beating in the various elections last night especially in English local authorities.   If one looks at the origins and history of the Libdems it becomes obvious that their core vote was small and that most of their support came from either disgruntled members of the two main parties or from voters who voted for them as the best way to keep out a candidate from one of the main parties  in constituencies where the Libdems had the best chance of overturning either a Tory or Labour majority.
 
The Libdems are, of course, a coalition in themselves as their membership either came from the Liberal party or the SDP which in turn was the right wing of the Labour party which felt it was driven out of that party when Foot took Labour so far to the left.
 
Inevitably once the Libdems entered a coalition with one of the two big parties a chunk of their support was going to disappear and, as their coalition was with the Tories, it's the former SDP wing which is thoroughly disenchanted and has either stayed at home and not voted or voted Labour where its heart really belongs.
 
There is another element, of course.   Junior parties in coalitions in the UK tend to be blamed for perceived failures of that coalition far more than do the senior partner.   After the Libdem - Labour coalition in the Scottish Parliament it was the Libdems who lost out in a major way in the next elections to that Parliament.   And last night Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Nationalists, who were in coalition with Labour in the Welsh Assembly appear to have lost heavily.
 
Looking at the history of Westminster governments, whenever the old Liberals entered a coalition they were hammered in the subsequent general election.
 
By and large, Brits do not like coalitions.
 

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